The mainstream media has hinted Russia may have had a hand in the Macedonian crisis (FYROM – the Former Yougoslavian Republic of Macedonia, as Greece insists on calling its neighbor). Russia said that the West has artificially created it. The West – the U.S. and particularly Europe has little interest in a crisis in the Balkans, taking that it is in its near neighborhood and it already serves as a route that refugees take to enter Europe. There are very few other things that will complicate Europeans’ affairs more than renewed Balkan crisis. For Russia, anything that helps keeping the Balkans away from the West sphere of influence serves its interest.
This is why what happens in Macedonia (FYROM) is important for both the West and Russia. About 100 persons were injured, including journalists and members of parliament, after protesters broke into the Macedonian parliament on April 27, when the newly established coalition was electing the ethnically Albanian Talat Xhaferi as new Speaker. The election would have been the first step for a new government to be confirmed. Instead, in the aftermath of the vote and the violence, instability and uncertainty grew and there was even speculation that the president would call the martial law. The U.S. and the EU both recognized the election of the new speaker and the U.S. Deputy Assistant of State Hoyt Yee visited with all parties involved between Apr. 30 – May 1 in order to put pressure and end the crisis. As a result, President Ivanov has somewhat softened after his meeting with Hoyt Yee and the newly elected speaker of parliament slowly took over his office, even without an official handover from his predecessor. It may be that a government is installed in the next ten days, after Xhaferi’s election is published in the Official Bulletin, but that doesn’t mean instability will end.
The current crisis began in 2015, when the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM) leader Zoran Zaev released tapes showing mass surveillance by the government under the Party for Macedonian National Unity party (VMRO-DPMNE) Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski, as well as corruption at the highest levels of government. These were adding to already existing socio-economic problems, considering the unemployment rate remained higher than 28% at the end of 2014 (record level for unemployment rate was reached in 2007, at more than 37%). Gruevski had to step down and new parliamentary elections were organized in December 2016. Neither Gruevski’s party VMRO-DPMNE nor its main contender, the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM) led by Zoran Zaev managed to secure a majority and the Albanian party Democratic Union for Integration DUI became the king-maker. As SDSM and DUI managed to come to an agreement on forming a coalition, the VMRO-DPMNE has accused them of plotting to destabilize the country. The Macedonian President Ivanov – also a member of VMRO, has refused to give the mandate to SDSM to form the government, as he said the Socialists are giving Albanians rights that would hamper the country’s national unity. Former PM Gruevski has also called for citizens to create “patriotic guards” that would fight back the Albanians’ plan aimed at creating the Great Albania.
Macedonia, just as other countries in the region, has the permanent struggle for its existence at the core of its soul. Far from being just an imperative, keeping independence and its borders intact is the national obsession, considering its history. It is a landlocked mountainous country, bordered by Serbia in the North, Kosovo in the North West, Albania in the West, Greece in the South and Bulgaria at its East. As a former Ottoman province, it fell under the Bulgarian occupation after the Russian-Turkish War, to later be taken under Serbian occupation which resulted from the First Balkan War (1912-13) and continued as part of Yugoslavia, under its different constitutions, since the end of the First World War until 1990 when it became independent. Home to an important Albanian minority (25% of the population according to the 2002 census), Macedonian stability was affected by the Kosovo crisis in 1999. Violent clashes between the country’s security forces and the Albanian minority which started in January 2001 terminated relatively fast, in June the same year, when the sides agreed to a NATO-negotiated ceasefire. But as a result of the conflict, most Albanians had fled Skopje while a lot of Macedonians had fled Gostivar and Tetovo in the west of the country. The signing of the Ohrid Agreement, brokered by the US and the EU and having NATO as key guarantor, marked the end of the conflict and became the instrument for maintaining interethnic harmony in the country. But the agreement didn’t prevent further clashes, especially as the socio-economics weren’t good.
Macedonia aspired to integrate into the Western alliance system. Its accession to NATO is currently pending as it was blocked by Greece in 2008 due to no resolution on the name dispute between the two countries – Greece says that Macedonia should have another name as the current one is pointing to the Greek Northern historical region. Macedonia is also a candidate to the EU membership and the country’s economic performance has been dependent on Europe. Macedonia benefits of pre-accession funding from the EU for institutional and infrastructure building, as well as for supporting various socio-economic development programs. Europe is also Macedonia’s most important market – according to the World Bank, more than half of the country’s total exports go to the EU, with Germany and Italy being the most important markets for Macedonian exports. A third of Macedonian imports come from Germany, the U.K. and Greece.
This is why Macedonia’s decision not to follow the West and oppose sanctions against Russia in 2014 came as a surprise to most. The relations between Russia and Macedonia have been and remained minimal – according to the World Bank statistics, Macedonian exports to Russia amounted less than 1% while Russian imports have been around 2%, even if Macedonia traditionally kept good relations with Russia, considering the countries cultural and religious Slavic linkages. But Macedonia saw that post-2008 crisis, the appetite for EU enlargement was low among EU members. Brussels also increased criticism against the way the then Prime Minister Gruevski, the leader of the right wing VMRO-DPMNE was ruling the country. The Skopje government was accused for using EU funds inappropriately (as it was building statues and monuments throughout Skopje, instead of modernizing infrastructure), and not doing much to diminish corruption and support economic development in Macedonia. Gruevski had been in power since 2006 and he was increasingly seen to increase his authoritarian rule. In turn, the economy was not doing well: in 2014 unemployment was high (30%) and the country was also fighting deflation. Protests against the government had already appeared throughout the country with some also being ethnically fueled. Gruevski hoped to get money to fight deteriorating socio-economics and, with no others in sight, Russia appeared to be a good partner at the time. He thought that getting Russia’s support, at a time when the West was starting criticizing him, would help him stay in power.
Nikola Gruevski visited Moscow and met with Putin in 2012. The Kremlin promised greater economic ties and more investment into Macedonia. In 2014, with South Stream officially taken off the agenda, Russia started talking about an alternative project. The Turkish Stream leg to Europe would pass through Macedonia, making for the shortest route from the Black Sea to the Adriatic. If Prime Minister Gruevski was concerned of keeping power to himself and thought about the economic benefits of such an opportunity, Russia thought long term. It is in Russian interest to keep Macedonia – and other countries in the Balkans away from Western influence. Russia, unlike the EU who insists on building integrated infrastructure for the region, it is against the idea for the simple reason that such infrastructure will connect the region to the West and to NATO countries. Russia needs to prevent the development of military infrastructure that would facilitate movement of Western troops in the region and to the Mediterranean and the Black seas.
Russia isn’t really interested in supporting one party or another, it isn’t interested in internal politics. It is interested in keeping countries away from Western influence. Sometimes it uses funding and economic help to keep a country under its sphere of influence and, ultimately, under its control – as it does with Belarus and had done with Ukraine prior to the current conflict. But that strategy is not needed in the Balkans. It is unsure how the current crisis in Macedonia will unfold. While Europe is worried that renewed inter-ethnic conflict could be fueled by the current politics in Macedonia, Russia is indifferent to the current crisis’ outcome – not indifferent to the crisis, though.
The fact that a Macedonian government backed by the SDSM-DUI coalition has a relatively low support in parliament and the opposition party is powerful and using a nationalistic rhetoric are the ingredients for an unstable political environment. Protests are likely to continue, even if a new government is installed – the political camps will not cease to fight one another. That means that the government will not focus much on foreign affairs and the good governance of the country, but on keeping the power they acquired through the coalition forming. Which leads to internal politicking. This makes the potential to continue integration with the West limited. Which, after all, serves well the Russian interest – without Russia doing much (or anything).