British Prime Minister Theresa May signed on March 29 a letter declaring the United Kingdom’s intention to invoke Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union and withdraw from the EU. While it is usual for details of the negotiation mandates for countries dealing with the EU to remain unreported, there are some news on what will likely be discussed. We know little from media reports, but we know enough on the country’s socio-economics. We know that the UK doesn’t want to be part of the common market as it intends to better control migration from continental Europe. We also know that it is in both the UK and the EU interest for trade facilitations between the two entities to continue. The British trade patterns have changed since early 2000s, with London increasing trade with non-EU countries – particularly the Commonwealth Nations. It is expected this trend to continue post-Brexit. The UK will also invest more into its relationship with the US. On the short term, Britain will search to settle in its negotiation with the EU regarding the status of its passporting rights – a system that allows financial companies operating in the United Kingdom to sell their services to EU members without having to apply for permission in each country. This is a technical matter which has taken a lot of the media’s attention since the vote last year. In fact, considering the British economy tradition as well as its current structure, this is a small issue. Passporting rights have a lot to do with EU legislation, but little to do with the fact that London is one of the most important financial center of the world. London had a major role in global finances before the EU existed and before the UK joined the EU. It was geography that have helped London build that role, as it also helped it keep its Empire links alive throughout time.
Russian protests both in Moscow, Sankt Petersburg but also smaller cities during the last month are indicators for the country’s worsening economic problems. Just minutes before the time of sending this monthly focus, two explosions took place at two different Sankt Petersburg metro stations. President Putin declared that while “reasons for the explosion are still unknown, all versions are considered – both domestic and terrorist”. While we can’t be sure what the explosions are related to, all these are signs of instability for Russia, which is already dealing with socio-economic distress due to a low oil price that has been cutting in the country’s budget, weakening it.
Fear for Nexit vanished as the nationalist party of the Netherlands coming second in parliamentary elections. Geert Wilders lost the elections, but his popularity remains high. The Dutch elections confirm, ahead of the French and the German elections, the diminishing if not disappearing of the “politics of center” in Western European political life. The latest polls show Manuel Macron is facing difficulties gaining ground in France, while he is portraying himself as the centrist contender against Le Pen. In Germany, SPD campaign for more integration is not much different than that of the CDU, even with SPD Sigmar Gabriel did try to set a new tone against austerity programs by saying that Germany should contribute more to the EU budget. All in all, the good news that Wilders came in second in the Dutch elections is shadowed by the fact that he won a lot of votes – and that other populist and nationalist forces continue to gain ground elsewhere in Western Europe as the mainstream parties have weakened.
Parliamentary elections in Bulgaria saw the center-right Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria party (GERB) winning again. Former Prime Minister Borissov party won 95 seats, Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) 80, the nationalist United Patriots 27, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms 26 and Mareshki’s Volya 12. The Socialists, while losing the elections, made considerable progress considering that they had only 39 seats in the previous parliament. It is also notable that both mainstream parties reference to populism and nationalism increased during the last campaign, while the main right-wing nationalistic United Patriots – gathering the former Patriotic Front coalition and Ataka, has seen their support decline. Considering the 121 seats needed for governing, both GERB and BSP could negotiate their way to government. In theory, BSP and GERB both could accommodate nationalists while Volya has already put forward a demand for a formal coalition with GERB. The Patriots are likely to prefer GERB as well, taking into account that in a BSP government they will have to come to agreement with the Turkish/Muslim minority party Movement for Rights and Freedoms. As in 2013-2014, such a government would be marked by internal squabbles and pressure from a powerful GERB opposition in parliament. The takeaway from Bulgarian latest elections result is that the country’s binary mainstream political system is resilient and no much change can be expected in the future. The anti-corruption, and in a sense anti-establishment, parties “Yes, Bulgaria” and “New Republic” didn’t manage to pass the treshhold to get into Parliament while the performance of both the nationalist and the minority parties remained the more or less the same to what it has been in previous elections.
Macedonian president Gjorge Ivanov refused to give the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM) leader Zoran Zaev the mandate to form a government. SDSM has come to an agreement to form a coalition with the Albanian minority party, ensuring the parliamentary support for a new government by controlling 67 of the 120 seats parliament. Ivanov, member of the Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE), led by former PM Nicola Gruevski, said that granting such a mandate would be undermining the country’s sovereignty by promising the ethnic Albanians greater language rights. In the same time, the Serb minority has also said that the coalition would be the first step for the federalization of the country. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the political crisis had been created “artificially” and warned the western countries against dividing the country. As the discourse evolves, the EU Brussels officials are hoping for the new SDSM government to be installed as they say the threat of renewed inter-ethnic conflict has increased since political discussion relates to ethnic rights. But Brussels position is not unanimously supported by the EU member states. Hungary’s government has developed ties with Macedonian Gruevski government and Prime Minister Orban has recently received President Ivanov the same day that Ivanov refused to meet Brussels delegation. With no perspective for EU accession in sight, Brussels (soft) power in Western Balkans capitals becomes softer, and, as nationalism takes ground, the risk for renewed tensions becomes higher.
Serbia’s consolidation as a regional power is continuing as the government party leader is confirmed president in the first round of elections. The 55% margin that conservative Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic won Serbia’s presidential election on April 2 confirms his domination of the country’s politics. This confirms Serbians’ support for his balancing act policy between Russia and the West – which is understood to be Germany, the leader of the EU and, more recently, the U.S., taking into account Vucic’s visit to Washington as well as U.S. VP Biden’s visit to Belgrade in 2016.