The U.K. has triggered Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and is leaving the European Union. The two year Brexit negotiation period has started, but we haven’t seen much negotiation yet. At this point, it is impossible to foreseen the outcomes of this process and everybody is trying to turn this turbulent situation to their favor. Here are few ways that we saw, by reading the media, Continental Europe potentially gaining from Brexit.
- Continental Europe might get an infusion of highly skilled professionals, most of them working in finance or technology. It is not just that multinational companies are planning to leave London (taking many of their employees as well), but also that specialists are trying to make the move on their own. The world’s largest asset manager, BalckRock, is setting up a hub in Budapest and managers were astonished by the fact that about one third of job applications came from London. After the Brexit earthquake, The City is likely to remain a very important financial center, but jobs and opportunities will not be as easy to get as they are now. Professionals have already realised that and started looking to make steps in their careers outside the United Kingdom. Dublin, Frankfurt or Paris (cities attracting most of the big firms who are about to move parts of their businesses from the UK) are going to be their favorite work destinations. But Central and Eastern Europe has more and more to offer as well. According to the Associaion of Business Service Leaders, quoted by Bloomberg, global companies opening hubs in the region will create 1 million new jobs by 2025.
- While everyone is talking about opening hubs elsewhere, London is becoming a great place to buy office space. Deutsche Bank AG’s asset management unit calculated that central London office values are likely to fall 20% this year, due to the uncertainty brought about by Brexit. Values are already decreasing. But, once the storm has passed, they will probably go up again (although they may not reach the pre-Brexit peak values). Therefore, foreign businesses who want to expand to the United Kingdom could take advantage of the fall in prices.
- After complaining for many years that the medical personnel seeks jobs in the United Kingdom, countries in Central and Eastern Europe (Romania, Bulgaria, Poland) may have the chance to see this trend reversing. The United Kingdom needs as many as 24.000 nurses, but the number of EU citizens who register as nurses has dropped abruptly. The British press reports that, in 2015, an average of almost 800 nurses applied for jobs in the UK each month. In 2016, the number fell to less than 200. In December 2016 they were less than 100. Concerned about their rights after the United Kingdom leaves the European Union, nurses are seeking jobs elsewhere. Most of them are from Central and Eastern Europe. No doubt that they are interested in other Western Countries, but with the right policies they could be lured back to their home countries.
- Brexit might bring about changes in the media and in the movie industry. The United Kingdom is currently the premier European destination for Studios from the United States. But those investments in films and television might sharply decrease, as broadcasters also rely on EU subsidies. Therefore, they might move their Studios in countries which ensure their access to EU funds.